Note that a project that has been successful in the past is more likely to be of the type that is successful with 75% probability than with 25%. In the same way, a project that was unsuccessful in the past is more likely to be of the type that succeeds with 25% probability. In contrast, in case of a new project chosen by a new manager, you will have no information about its success probability other than that each type is equally likely among the 8 new projects that new managers choose from.

Furthermore, if you have reason to believe that a project is successful with 75% probability it is possible that it is a relatively valuable project, even if the amount of money that you earn in case of a success and in case of a failure are both lower than in another project.

Rounds and payment

Each round of the experiment consists of the three projects described before. In total, there will be 8 rounds, each with different combinations of earnings for the different projects in the case of success and failure.

The positions of the different managers and projects on the screens on which they are chosen are randomly determined in each round, so you cannot track them throughout the different rounds.

After the end of the experiment we will randomly draw one of the 8 rounds. Your earnings in that round will determine your payment. Your payment from other rounds will be zero.