The third project

Finally, a third project is to be implemented. However, in this case the situation changes: The investor can either proceed with the same currently employed manager or choose a new project manager.

If the investor chooses to go on employing the current project manager, the second project is going to be implemented once more. It will still have the same success probability as before, meaning that if the project manager selected a project with a high success probability of 75% it still has that success probability of 75%, and similarly for a project with a low success probability of 25%. Of course, a previously successful project need not necessarily have to be of the high success probability type, and an unsuccessful project need not necessarily have to be of the low success probability type.

If, instead, the investor chooses to change to a new project manager, this manager will then choose from a set of 8 new projects. These projects are again equally likely to be of the high (75%) or low (25%) success probability type.

Note that new projects can have different earnings, both if successful or unsuccessful. The investor will be informed about the new earnings before choosing whether to stay with the current project and project manager or switching to a new one.

A new project manager is chosen on a screen similar to the first time that a manager was chosen. Note, furthermore, that none of the managers that the investor can choose from at that stage have been chosen for a project before. This also implies that a manager who was employed for a first project, but who gets replaced by a new manager, will not be employed for a second project.